moment is that it gives me more time for cool reflection on strategy
and future direction. I've got a few ideas for further developments in
the game which I may well post on here next week. But in the meantime
I've been pondering team strategy.
Those who have followed this blog from the start will recall my
original strategy was not to have much of a strategy for the first few
years, to see where I came out in the wash and then to implement a
longer-term plan. But that idea has been blown out of the water by
what has happened. Firstly the team has done much better than I dared
expect, and secondly when I investigated the GW finances I found that
lots of cash will be flowing in to the GW over the next few years
without many new ways to spend it. To me this must equal inflation,
and we're starting to see it already in Voller, with prices of player
transfers rising. Yes there was the infamous £3.25m deal, but there
have been lots of other transfers too. As other managers see prices
rising they demand more. A manager who wanted 500k on Saturday for a
striker I was chasing was demanding 750k by yesterday. And as other
managers see their finances graph looking like a healthy green take-
off path they become more willing to pay these raised prices
I think this trend will continue for 3 seasons now, as each year prize
money rises and teams have more cash to spend. It may be worst in
season 2 because wage demand rises will also start to kick in during
the following seasons, but I think it will continue as those wage
rises may well not be as big as the prize money increases. The problem
is likely to be particularly acute at the top end of the market as the
prize money increases will be greatest there.
This trend will only stop after Season 4 or 5 when prize money stops
rising year on year and the seriously big wages kick in. At that point
I think we might even see some temporary deflation - particularly at
the top end of the market where the biggest wage rises will come -
until things calm down and the economy settles in to a long term trend
of low inflation.
I plan to collect data on this in the coming months and see if my
projections prove correct. More of that in a later post...
In the meantime, what does this mean for team strategy? Well, it means
now is the time to buy! With inflation on the way, provided you don't
go crazy now your investment is likely to be worth it as player values
and prize money rise. I paid the 750k for that striker and don't
regret it - he's 24 so just coming in to his prime and already 15+ in
half a dozen key atts, and 12+ in pretty much everything else that
matters. And he's on less than 8k wages with 2 seasons left on his
contract. I predict he'll be worth £1m+ in a season's time. I hope to
add a couple more players soon too - a DM and a LB are top of the list.
The key then will be to pick the right moment to stop buying and start
saving. You don't want to do this too soon, or you'll see other teams
improving faster than you on and off the field. But you really don't
want to do it too late, or you'll find you're still in debt with wage
demands rising and a need to sell players - only your players are now
worth less than they were a few weeks before. The smartest managers
will have actually started saving a while before that point, and have
built up a warchest that will allow them to pick off some of these
cheap buys and take their team on even further.
So I think my conclusion is the following:
- Season 2: Buy buy buy, pushing the overdraft to the limit.
- Season 3: Clear the debt from S2 and start the investment process,
getting cash in to the stadium to yield rewards later.
- Season 4: finish stadium investments and start building the warchest.
- Season 5: keep building the warchest until the market turns and then
cash in.
Sounds simple doesn't it. Of course it won't be. But from the evidence
I think it's the logical approach to take. Jakswan is in the same GW
as me and as an inflation sceptic plans to take a more conservative
approach, so it will be interesting to compare which works best.
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